CIPA 2024: The Rise of China and Compacts

[Richard CN]

There are two notables from CIPA 2024 statistics, and I think both are curious, but for far different reasons.

canonrumors.com/cipa-2024-the-rise-of-china-and-compacts/

 

[LCDVS00]

Lots of people in Chinese local SNS like Xiaohongshu (Or ,Redbook) tell me they bought R100 as their first DSLR.
For me , that's not an odd choice. In China, it's only need 400$ to buy a R100 body while the R50 costs approximately $550. For reference, young graduates who might be interested in photography typically have an estimated monthly income between $700 and $1,500.

 

[Richard CN]

As much as I rag on about the R100, i could totally see this. it\'s around 2000-3000 yuan in China, which is still a large amount, but something a lot can afford.

I do however, still think Canon could do a better job on the R200.

 

[Maximilian]

Now, imagine how many more mirrorless cameras would have sold if the R100 was a better camera

Just

 

[Maximilian]

Gimme a slightly better R50, with a hotshoe that deserves its name, and one more MILC would be sold - to me.

Good kit lenses are no longer needed - thanks to Sigma

 

[Richard CN]

Just

I had to! y'all would have been disappointed if I didn't go there

 

[Richard CN]

Gimme a slightly better R50, with a hotshoe that deserves its name, and one more MILC would be sold - to me.

Good Kit lenses are no longer needed - thanks to Sigma

coming from the M's i thought i would find the R50 fine to use - I absolutely hated it. I had no problems with the M's (any of them) but i was constantly causing button clicks holding the camera by pressing against the circular button pad



that little bit of difference made me rage a bazilion times. even the R10 really doesn't have space between the edge of the camera and the wheel.

 

[Maximilian]

coming from the M's … i was constantly causing button clicks holding the camera by pressing against the circular button pad

Fully understand. Annoying thing.

My small travel body was a 200D/SL2.

I never had issues. So I think the R50 ergonomics should work for me, too.

To me, they look much more similiar than the M‘s do.

 

[Richard CN]

Fully understand. Annoying thing.

My small travel body was a 200D/SL2.

I never had issues. So I think the R50 ergonomics should work for me, too.

To me, they look much more similiar than the M‘s do.

there's still a bit more of a gap, i'd try it out and see if you like it or not, it's obviously one of those subjective things where everyone is different.

 

[Maximilian]

there's still a bit more of a gap, i'd try it out and see if you like it or not, it's obviously one of those subjective things where everyone is different.

As I won‘t buy an R50 - because of that stupid hotshoe - I will do exactly that with the successor.
Or with the just rumored R50V…

 

[Richard CN]

As I won‘t buy an R50 - because of that stupid hotshoe - I will do exactly that with the successor.
Or with the just rumored R50V…

The R50V sounds curious.

 

[CJaurelius]

I think this line part from the article highlights the misconceptions about what's happening:

"Compact cameras showed remarkable growth in 2024, basically when everyone wrote them off as dead. They showed growth even though no one released a compact camera outside of Fujifilm in 2024."

A lot of the increase in "compact" cameras is the the Fuji X100V. However this IS NOT a compact camera. CIPA doesn't track "compact" cameras they track "fixed lens" cameras. People are using these categories interchangeably, but that is incorrect. The Fuji X100VI is an apsc camera with a fixed lens.

iF Canon sold a version of the R7 with a fixed lens and it sold well, it would show up in CIPA's "fixed lens" category and people here would be saying "wow compact cameras are doing great". But clearly the R7 isn't a compact camera.

Here is the "compact" Fuji X100VI which is leading the craze vs the Sony A7C which is FULL FRAME:

 

[David - Sydney]

China will inevitably make their own locally sourced/branded camera at some point.
Venus/Laowa/Meike/ etc are making lenses and Huawei is moving away from Sony for camera sensors so at some point in time they have the bits to put together.

If there is a substantial domestic (meaning within China) market for compact cameras combined with increased tariffs and nationalism then it may be sooner rather than later. Hauwei would make sense to be the OEM and use their existing distribution channels. If they can improve the camera-to-phone/internet connectivity transfers within China then they would have a winner IMHO.
The Instax market would also be vulnerable as well.

Canon/Sony/Nikon will still have the higher end ILC market to themselves for the foreseeable future though.
Unless there is a major disruptor product (eg deepseek), catching up will be a difficult and expensive proposition.
The alternative is what Sony did with their Konica Minolta acquisition similar to Geely/Volvo and SAIC/MG etc assuming regulatory approvals

 

[CJaurelius]

China will inevitably make their own locally sourced/branded camera at some point.
Venus/Laowa/Meike/ etc are making lenses and Huawei is moving away from Sony for camera sensors so at some point in time they have the bits to put together.

This ignores the elephant in the room which is DJI. They are already making complete cameras. The OP3 was everything Canon wished the V10 could've been. And it's selling like crazy:

https://www.yahoo.com/tech/dji-osmo-pocket-3-japans-160602981.html

"DJI Osmo Pocket 3 sales have been so good, they've bolstered DJI's overall share in the Japanese video camera market. As BCN+R puts it; "DJI has been leading the manufacturer share of video camera sales for 11 consecutive months," and its graph (above) clearly shows DJI's dominance throughout 2024."

So while its crushing the competition in Japan because its not made in Japan and therfore not a part of CIPA were just going to act like it doesn't exist I guess.

If there is a substantial domestic (meaning within China) market for compact cameras combined with increased tariffs and nationalism then it may be sooner rather than later. Hauwei would make sense to be the OEM and use their existing distribution channels. If they can improve the camera-to-phone/internet connectivity transfers within China then they would have a winner IMHO.
The Instax market would also be vulnerable as well.

I beleive DJI aleardy has this. The Mimo app is generations ahead of anything I've seen on a mirrorless cameras.

Canon/Sony/Nikon will still have the higher end ILC market to themselves for the foreseeable future though.
Unless there is a major disruptor product (eg deepseek), catching up will be a difficult and expensive proposition.
The alternative is what Sony did with their Konica Minolta acquisition similar to Geely/Volvo and SAIC/MG etc.

On the high end they have Hasselblad and in the cinema space they have Ronin. But I agree these are more niche and the big 3 will dominate for years to come.

 

[Richard CN]

China will inevitably make their own locally sourced/branded camera at some point.
Venus/Laowa/Meike/ etc are making lenses and Huawei is moving away from Sony for camera sensors so at some point in time they have the bits to put together.

If there is a substantial domestic (meaning within China) market for compact cameras combined with increased tariffs and nationalism then it may be sooner rather than later. Hauwei would make sense to be the OEM and use their existing distribution channels. If they can improve the camera-to-phone/internet connectivity transfers within China then they would have a winner IMHO.
The Instax market would also be vulnerable as well.

Canon/Sony/Nikon will still have the higher end ILC market to themselves for the foreseeable future though.
Unless there is a major disruptor product (eg deepseek), catching up will be a difficult and expensive proposition.
The alternative is what Sony did with their Konica Minolta acquisition similar to Geely/Volvo and SAIC/MG etc.

that's a very good point. if the market keeps going and China keeps ticking at around 4-5% growth, sooner or later, it'll happen.

I guess DJI would be one that I could see sooner rather than later. They are almost there anyway. There have been rumours of DJI jumping into that market and patents to show they are working on something.

Hauwei would be incredible if they had a tight integration with their ecosystem (which they probably would for obvious reasons)

To be honest, I'd love to see what Huawei could do. Their ecosystem integration between their devices is insanely slick - this may be far more of a possibility now that they have done their own image sensors for their phones. if you can manage a phone image sensor of good enough quality scaling that up to at least APS-C isn't much of a problem.

 

[Richard CN]

This ignores the elephant in the room which is DJI. They are already making complete cameras. The OP3 was everything Canon wished the V10 could've been. And it's selling like crazy:

So while its crushing the competition in Japan because its not made in Japan and therfore not a part of CIPA were just going to act like it doesn't exist I guess.

This was very much a Samsung problem too. There's also a strong bias to Japanese camera manufacturers. it's hard for a Korean or Chinese to break into the market. Of course Chinese brands though would have a pretty strong chance of dominating the domestic market in short order especially if it was a reliable brand like DJI or Huawei

 

[Richard CN]

A lot of the increase in "compact" cameras is the the Fuji X100V. However this IS NOT a compact camera. CIPA doesn't track "compact" cameras they track "fixed lens" cameras.

That's fair. I should be calling it fixed lens.

 

[CJaurelius]

This was very much a Samsung problem too. There's also a strong bias to Japanese camera manufacturers. it's hard for a Korean or Chinese to break into the market. Of course Chinese brands though would have a pretty strong chance of dominating the domestic market in short order especially if it was a reliable brand like DJI or Huawei

The issue I see is that DJI has already broke into the market. BCN put out the best selling cameras of 2024 witht he ZV-E10 and the R50 being #1 and #2. The OP3 is in a differenct "category" crushing the compettion at 24.3% market share and the Hero 13 black in second place with only 9.1%.

However the OP3 is a vlogging camera that competes directly with the ZV-E10 and R50 and not with the Here 13 black which is an action camera. On Amazon the ZV-E10 and R50 are selling about 550 a month each. Meanwhile the OP3 is selling 9,000 a month.

So DJI already has a model that is dominating in America and because their numbers aren't tracked by CIPA everyone just pretends it doesn't exist.

 

[David - Sydney]

This ignores the elephant in the room which is DJI. They are already making complete cameras. The OP3 was everything Canon wished the V10 could've been. And it's selling like crazy:
https://www.yahoo.com/tech/dji-osmo-pocket-3-japans-160602981.html

DJI's secret sauce has been their drone/stabilisation tech. The US is teetering on the edge of banning their drones which will hurt everyone especially as there isn't anyone else close to them.
The thing about Osmo and drones is that they are primarily video and secondarily stills. That isn't a blocking issue but it is a different space and clearly MILCs are closer to video (EVF/AF) even though stills are the primary feature.

Yes, DJI (or GoPro for that matter) could put together a compact camera/fixed lens and it would be an interesting to see what they could do with it.

 

[Richard CN]

DJI's secret sauce has been their drone/stabilisation tech. The US is teetering on the edge of banning their drones which will hurt everyone especially as there isn't anyone else close to them.
The thing about Osmo and drones is that they are primarily video and secondarily stills. That isn't a blocking issue but it is a different space and clearly MILCs are closer to video (EVF/AF) even though stills are the primary feature.

Yes, DJI (or GoPro for that matter) could put together a compact camera/fixed lens and it would be an interesting to see what they could do with it.

DJI would probably be quite happy to dominate 75% of the global market and tell the US market stuff it.

DJI has a majority stake in hasselblad so there's got to be some good synergy there as well