Japan BCN Sales for January 2025

[MikeGalos]

Clearly data analysis isn’t your forte. Canon sold 3.5 times as many ILCs as Nikon last year and 4 times as many the year before. That’s not ‘quickly catching up’. When you’ve been lapped a few times, catching up is hard.

Going from 4x as much to 3.5x as much is a significant drop. Closing a gap is what catching up looks like. And, again, you keep falling on that idea of laps. It's a continuous race. Things don't reset year by year like lap times.

 

[MikeGalos]

And while I get it were in a team Canon environment market share doesn't translate to revenue. From a revenue standpoint Canon makes about ¥580B from cameras in 2024 and Nikon made ¥293B or little over half. Think about that for a second. Canon sells "3.5 times as many ILCs as Nikon" and yet Nikon still has generates a little over half the revenue. The difference between units and revenue highlights that Canon dominates the low end of the market.

Nikon stated when they essentially reset the company when they effectively discontinued both the Coolpix P&S line and DSLRs and the F-Mount that they were going to focus on the higher profit, lower volume markets and abandon the high volume, low profit segments. That was their response to the death of the low end as phones replaced low-end cameras. While they kept producing a few small sensor bodies they really turned to full frame with a line of five bodies, each about US$1,000 apart and targeting specific market segments. You'll note they abandoned the equivalent of the entry DSLRs like their D3000 and D5000 families Where this has failed has been the lack of interest in the low-end Z 5 and the success of nostalgia bodies in both crop sensor (Z fc) and full frame (Z f).

 

[neuroanatomist]

Going from 4x as much to 3.5x as much is a significant drop. Closing a gap is what catching up looks like. And, again, you keep falling on that idea of laps. It's a continuous race. Things don't reset year by year like lap times.

Oh. Ok. Come back when Canon has actually lost a meaningful amount of market share. I won’t hold my breath.

 

[CJaurelius]

The number are what they are, but your subsequent statement relies on the idea that cameras costing $4000-6000 are big drivers of unit sales. 'Spin' falls flat when it fails the sniff test.

Nikon's revenue was about the same in 2020 even though they were selling 2M DILC's vs 800k today. They clearly moved to a higher pricepoint to offset the lower sales. Looking at their sales over the years I'd estimte the $1500 - $2500 mark seems to be the sweet spot where the lower number of sales makes up for higher revenue. This also jives with Sony. They have a ton of cameras in that price range and make more revenue than Canon even though they sell less cameras.

 

[CJaurelius]

Nikon stated when they essentially reset the company when they effectively discontinued both the Coolpix P&S line and DSLRs and the F-Mount that they were going to focus on the higher profit, lower volume markets and abandon the high volume, low profit segments. That was their response to the death of the low end as phones replaced low-end cameras. While they kept producing a few small sensor bodies they really turned to full frame with a line of five bodies, each about US$1,000 apart and targeting specific market segments. You'll note they abandoned the equivalent of the entry DSLRs like their D3000 and D5000 families Where this has failed has been the lack of interest in the low-end Z 5 and the success of nostalgia bodies in both crop sensor (Z fc) and full frame (Z f).

The Nikon Z5 was actually a pretty good camera it was just released too early before Nikon had proved they could perfom in the mirrorless market. The Z9 is what changed that narrative. Then the Z8 being essentially a mini Z9 for $4k showed Nikon was ready to compete again. The Z6III was a clear success and at a price point that could sell well. Neither Canon or Sony have an option that can do internal RAW at that price.

The Z30 is the equvalent of an entry level DSLR and was in the top 10 in Japan per BCN. I'd venture to guess that a Z5II would do much better in the current climate and expect they'll update it soon.

 

[dolina]

I'd love to see what percent of the market each brand has in terms of image sensor size.

Like how many percent of the digital medium format does FujiFilm, Hassleblad and PhaseOne has for that market.

What about full frame... what is Canon, Sony and Nikon?

For those interested what about the smaller image sensor sizes. Who leads where?

 

[neuroanatomist]

Nikon's revenue was about the same in 2020 even though they were selling 2M DILC's vs 800k today. They clearly moved to a higher pricepoint to offset the lower sales. Looking at their sales over the years I'd estimte the $1500 - $2500 mark seems to be the sweet spot where the lower number of sales makes up for higher revenue. This also jives with Sony. They have a ton of cameras in that price range and make more revenue than Canon even though they sell less cameras.

Typical goalpost move. Thanks for playing.

 

[Richard CN]

The number are what they are, but your subsequent statement relies on the idea that cameras costing $4000-6000 are big drivers of unit sales. 'Spin' falls flat when it fails the sniff test.

Canon's new cameras were $4000+, Nikon's were what? $700+?

I think Canon would take that trade of a decrease of basically rounding error on overall sales, for selling units that are around 3 to 4x as expensive as the aforementioned nikon releases. (and so would Canon's retailers) happily.

 

[Richard CN]

I'd love to see what percent of the market each brand has in terms of image sensor size.

Like how many percent of the digital medium format does FujiFilm, Hassleblad and PhaseOne has for that market.

What about full frame... what is Canon, Sony and Nikon?

For those interested what about the smaller image sensor sizes. Who leads where?

it would be curious, also to see how different it is by region as well.

 

[P-visie]

BCNRetail has posted an analysis of CIPA shipment data and their own sales data. They state that the mirrorless marketshare is around 30% of sales versus around half in shipments, i.e. a large discrepancy.

Google translated link.

 

[dolina]

it would be curious, also to see how different it is by region as well.

If it's on a per region basis then more expensive = richer countries.

 

[Richard CN]

If it's on a per region basis then more expensive = richer countries.

you'd think but there's still the top 10% of any country that is far more well off than the middle class.

 

[CJaurelius]

Canon's new cameras were $4000+, Nikon's were what? $700+?

I think Canon would take that trade of a decrease of basically rounding error on overall sales, for selling units that are around 3 to 4x as expensive as the aforementioned nikon releases. (and so would Canon's retailers) happily.

Nikon is selling cameras that on average are more expensive while Canon is selling on average cameras that are less expensive. This is why Canon sells 3.5 times the number of cameras but isn't making 3.5 times the revenue. Canon sells a ton of $500 cameras while Nikon is focused on the more expensive ones.

Nikon started gaining momentum after they released the Z9 for $5,500.

MikeGalos highlighted this:

Nikon stated when they essentially reset the company when they effectively discontinued both the Coolpix P&S line and DSLRs and the F-Mount that they were going to focus on the higher profit, lower volume markets and abandon the high volume, low profit segments. That was their response to the death of the low end as phones replaced low-end cameras.

Nikon is the former stategy and Canon is the later (again Sony for example makes MORE revenue and sells LESS cameras).

For a broad gauge if you take their revenue divided by the number of cameras you get $1,380 for Canon and $2,440 for Nikon. Considering Canon's lens cost more its clear Canon's camera sales are comprised of more low end camers.

This presents itself in the revenue market share data. Each year as the average price of camera sold is increasing Canon's market share of revenue is decreasing. The lower end of the market is the most vulnerable to losing ground to competition (smartphones, action cams, used market, etc) and this is the market that Canon dominates.

 

[CJaurelius]

Typical goalpost move. Thanks for playing.

I see the $4000+ pricepoint as the future of camera market. And to be fair it may be higher at some point. I guess a better way is saying if the R8 is entry level, R6 is middle of the road, and R5mii is where prosumer market starts I think the future of the market is R5mii and above.

When I look at the middle of the road, which for Nikon would be the Z6III and the Sony would be the A7IV the price point is $2,500 currently. However not to long ago those cameras released at $2000.

Top of the line smartphones are now up to $1,600. I see them as the bottom of the market which is why I think today the $1500 - $2500 is the market sweet spot, he R6mII, A7IV and Z6II. I imagine if the near distant future, smartphones will be up to $2000 and those cameras will be $3000. We repeat this proces over and over and the floor keeps getting higher.

 

[neuroanatomist]

I see the $4000+ pricepoint as the future of camera market. And to be fair it may be higher at some point. I guess a better way is saying if the R8 is entry level, R6 is middle of the road, and R5mii is where prosumer market starts I think the future of the market is R5mii and above.

When I look at the middle of the road, which for Nikon would be the Z6III and the Sony would be the A7IV the price point is $2,500 currently. However not to long ago those cameras released at $2000.

Top of the line smartphones are now up to $1,600. I see them as the bottom of the market which is why I think today the $1500 - $2500 is the market sweet spot, he R6mII, A7IV and Z6II. I imagine if the near distant future, smartphones will be up to $2000 and those cameras will be $3000. We repeat this proces over and over and the floor keeps getting higher.

I see a future where the earth is destroyed by the sun becoming a red giant. Meanwhile, the average unit price for MILCs remains at $800. Based on the trend line, the $4K price point is about 15 years away, an eternity in tech (think about MILC sales 15 years ago, for example).

 

[MikeGalos]

When I look at the middle of the road, which for Nikon would be the Z6III and the Sony would be the A7IV the price point is $2,500 currently. However not to long ago those cameras released at $2000.

In that time the Yen lost 1/3rd of its value compared to the US$. That US$2,500 Z6III or A7IV costs less in Yen than its US$2,000 equivalent did when they came out.

 

[MikeGalos]

I see a future where the earth is destroyed by the sun becoming a red giant. Meanwhile, the average unit price for MILCs remains at $800. Based on the trend line, the $4K price point is about 15 years away, an eternity in tech (think about MILC sales 15 years ago, for example).

To be fair you should note that the average unit price for MILCs at US$800 is the manufacturer revenue and the US$4K price was retail. And note that the manufacturer price is often not even the wholesale price but the revenue for the manufacturer when they sell to their regional distributor who may be a division of their own company and that distributor then charges wholesale to the retailer. So Canon in Tokyo sells at US$800 to Canon in Long Island who sells it at a higher price to B&H in Manhattan who sells it at a higher price to the consumer in Boise. And that Boise price is what the US$4K is based on.

 

[CJaurelius]

I see a future where the earth is destroyed by the sun becoming a red giant.

Glad to see we can agree on something

Meanwhile, the average unit price for MILCs remains at $800.

The average unit price for MILC's has exploded.

I think it's clear that the prices of individual cameras haven't tripled. The reason the average unit price is going up so fast is becuase mix of cameras sold each year is skewing toward more expensive cameras. If you sell 3 R50's and 1 R1 then the next year you sell 2 R50's and 2R1's the unit price jumps 50% even if they sell for the same price each year.

Based on the trend line, the $4K price point is about 15 years away, an eternity in tech (think about MILC sales 15 years ago, for example).

As I mentioned before it's not really just the price point but the actual type of camera. The bottom of the market is continuing to be eroded to competition. Cameras are getting more specialized to differentiate and compete. The market is become more niche by the day.

Even the fixed lens point and shoot crowd is moving upstream. The Powershot V1 cost more than an R50. If point and shoots are nearing $1k I think the trend line is a bit faster than you think.

I had a Nikon in 2013 when Sony released the first Full frame mirroless cameras. Maybe I'm getting old but it seems like yesterday. And now 12 years later the landscape is totally different. In 2013 I don't think anyone had Sony making the most camera revenue year after year on their bingo card.

 

[CJaurelius]

In that time the Yen lost 1/3rd of its value compared to the US$. That US$2,500 Z6III or A7IV costs less in Yen than its US$2,000 equivalent did when they came out.

Sony increased the prices of their cameras (actually most their products) that they sold in Japan in 2023. So for example the entry level ZV-E10 went up in price due to the Yen. Then when it was time to release it's successor (ZV-E10II) they didn't discount the orginal and replace it. Instead they kept the original ZV-E10 at the marked up price and released the ZV-E10II at an even higher price. The floor seems to be continuing to move higher.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Glad to see we can agree on something

Yes, I'm a big fan of science and data. I'm not a big fan of spin doctoring, though it's clear that you are...or just incapable of interpreting data. Why does your plot stop at 2022? Laziness…or is it that you don’t like the more recent data? I trust you realize the year is 2025 and CIPA has published data for 2023 and 2024...

The average unit price for MILC's has exploded.

...If point and shoots are nearing $1k I think the trend line is a bit faster than you think.

I am not 'thinking' about the trend line. I am looking at the data. You should try it sometime.

The average unit price of a MILC in 2023 was ¥120,100. In 2024, it was ¥120,400. So, here are the current data from CIPA:



You keep playing, but you’re not very good at this.