In their financial documents, Canon's latest forecast is that, for 2024, they will have a (2.80/5.75) 49% interchangeable lens camera unit market share. They will released an updated forecast on July 25.
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Canon’s global mirrorless market share sits at 41%, with Sony as their “biggest competitor”
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Completely agree with this. I brough this up about a year ago. Nikon (and Sony) haved moved away from the low margin low end cameras in favor of focusing primarily on full frame. As the artcile states Canon's market share is typically arund 50% with Sony at 26%. However now that focus is more toward just the "mirrorless" market now Canon is down to 41% and Sony is up to 32%. And if you focus on just Full Frame Sony is #1.
https://petapixel.com/2024/02/12/sony-disputes-canons-number-one-mirrorless-brand-in-2023-claim/
To Canon's credit they got rid of the M line and finally seem to be focused on full frame as well. The issue is that they use their own sensors and this is where Canon and Nikon were behind. Nikon simply had Sony manufacture sensors for them and along with their epertise in camera design have a some really awsome options. The R5mii will do enough for people in the Canon ecosystem but wont win anyone over. And the R1 isn't a true flagship camera and instead seems more like an R3mii.
Canon should just bite the bullet and have Sony manufacture some sensors for them. Between Canon and Sony, Canon clearly makes the best camera bodies and Sony makes better sensors. A Sony sensor in a Canon body would be the best of both worlds. And honestly I don't even think Sony cares if they are making cameras 10 years from now. You can tell the cameras are really just there to show of their sensor technology. They don't do simply things like provide decent firmware updates.
Sony does the same thing with smartphones. They really don't try to compete as much in providing the best overall experience. Instead its like they just want to get the best sensors in their phones as a proof of concept so that the other brands buy their sensors.
The Nikon Sony partnership has worked out well. Canon should jump in before they get too comforterable together.
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I really can only reference data points that exist out there that is free. Otherwise it is just anecdotal evidence. What I see is that BCN rankings show a lack of Canon's presence in video cameras in Japan. I don't doubt that it is used in many commercial productions, it just hasn't been enough to displace Sony or Panasonic. It hasn't even been able to displace DJI in 3rd place who isn't even really a video camera manufacturer to begin with.
If you combine that with the lack of any new groundbreaking Cinema EOS press releases of late in contrast to Sony with their Venice launch which was received well when it was released and continues to be used in more and more productions at Sundance (6 in 2024), I don't think Canon is pursuing this category as aggressively as before and lack of sales/penetration could be perhaps one factor.
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Professional video runs far lower quantities compared to stills cameras, that's all.
Aside of that EOS Cine cameras are reliable workhorses and widely used in
commercial production.
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I'm not sure of the significance of these data. All else being equal, if Canon were #3 at 13% I would still be using Canon cameras.
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Japan is a very different market.
Over here in Germany I can't even remember when I have last seen a Panasonic camera on a production,
Panasonic has even shut down their professional video HQ in Europe.
Sony - occasionally an A7 variant in low budget productions, mostly hip-hop music videos.
Two single productions with FX6 during the last year.
We see a lot more RED than Sony and no Panasonic. A few Blackmagic Design, BMPCC 4k/6k/6k PRO, Ursa 12K.
And a ton of C70 and R5C. C100/C200 are phasing out, most have upgraded to C300/C500 variants and I expect
the C400 to start rolling well also.
Nearly all their products redord video in some form or another, so.....
Sure, with the exemption of the Ronin 4D not really dedicated cinema video cameras like we all know them.
Low price and enormous quantities. Heck, I have three DJI "cameras"......
Canon is the #1 brand of cameras used in this year's Sundance:
The Cameras of Sundance 2024 Shed Light On How Indie Filmmakers Have Evolved
Discovering what tools festival filmmakers are using is an interesting look into the indie landscape.
nofilmschool.com
I think they are doing pretty okay.
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I agree, with the late start in the ML market it would be not surprising if Canon's sales would well behind Sony's. But, obviously, Canon has a really precise picture of which products still attract many camera users. But it is a completely new world of photography, dominated by smartphones and the loss of Nikon as main competitor.
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So you're advocating essentially a monopoly? How does that help consumers? And in what ways are Sony sensors meaningfully better?
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Yes...and you made as much sense then as you do now, i.e., very little.
If you want to focus on a subset of data because that subset fits your opinion, that’s your choice. 16.7% of cameras sold during that period were DSLRs, most of them made by Canon. In terms of the overall ILC market, Canon was at ~48% market share last year and they forecast a tiny increase to ~49% this year. Sony is still at around 26-27% of the overall camera market. So nothing has changed, despite your implication to the contrary.
In fact, a few years ago Sony had a solid lead in just the mirrorless market, so if you want to focus on just that segment then the conclusion is that Canon is gaining mirrorless market share while Sony is losing it, and that Canon surpassed Sony to take over the #1 spot.
In summary, then...as the overall ILC market plummeted, and as the market transitions from DSLRs to MILCs (2020 was the first year the latter outsold the former), Canon has maintained a near-50% market share.
Bias, anyone? A reasonable conclusion is that for 2023, Canon and Sony had approximately a similar market position in the full frame market. But you read an article entitled, "Sony Disputes Canon’s ‘Number One Mirrorless Brand in 2023’ Claim" and conclude that Sony is #1...even though both companies claim to have been. Realistically, both were depending on how you measure it...it's just that Canon measures it the same way the industry as a whole measures it, by units sold...while Sony wants to interpret sales differently so they can claim to be #1.
They have. The 1" sensors used in their high-end P&S cameras have been made by Sony for many years.
Based on what? Canon sensor performance is on par with Sony and Nikon.
Having said that, the two stops of low ISO DR lost by Sony's global shutter sensor in the a9III is somewhat significant).
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Also, having two industry giants manufacture their own sensors and constantly try to one-up the other significantly drives technological innovation, which benefits the consumer. The absolute last thing anyone wants is for one company to produce every sensor (or every anything). That would be bad, very bad.
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Well, it would be very good for the resulting monopolist - at least in terms of short/medium term profit. But indeed very bad for everyone else, especially users.
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This doesn't reflect how sensor are made. Factories that can build these image sensors are extremely expensive. Most companies can't do it competitively and innovate at the same time. Take Nvidia at the moment. Their stock price is throug the roof as the ones making the chips for AI but they don't actually manufacture them, they're made in Taiwan where they leverage these factories to make chips for a lot more companies. Sony is similar. They make a ton of sensors that go into not only cameras, but phones, cars, industrial uses etc. Canon doesn't have that ability and therefore doesn't have the same budgets, research and development, and leverage among other industires. But neither does Nvidia and they're worth dozens of Canons.
Nikon recently bought RED. I'm sure a lot of their cinema tech will trickle down to the prosumer side of Nikon. But also like Nvidia, RED doesn't manufacture their own chips, Sony does. But Nikon aquirred the intellectual property to the design of those sensors and could choose to have Onsemi make them for example.
The R5mII for example is an upgraded version of R5m1 sensor showing essentially the best they can do today. Likewise the R1's sensor is an upgraded version of the R3's sensor. They clearly don't have technology for a flagship high megapixe/fast sensor today. They could've instead used the R1's sensor as an R3mii which most people see it as. And then designed a slight upgraded sensor similar to Sony's A1 and had 50MP+ fast king of the hill camera. Then in 4 years when the next generation of cameras are due if they have something better they could use to their own sensor. But at least this gen they would've had the best camera.
As it stands now as soon as Nikon and Sony come out with their updated versions Canon will right back to playing catch up. Look at the Sony A9iii with it's global shutter. For most of us here the benefits of a global shutter don't outweigh the current limitations. But soon they'll work out some of those limitations. Meanwhile Canon's 19MP global shutter clearly wasn't ready to be implemented in any high end cameras yet.
Below is a breakdown of the sensor market. Sony is 42% and Canon is 1%. I don't think that competition is really driving Sony. Sony's competition is based on providing sensors to the specifications of Apple,Fuji, Leica, Nikon, Dji, Hasselblad, etc.
While its easy to think the world revolves around us, cmos sensors used in stand alone cameras is an extremely niche market segment and the competition/technology is driven by other uses. Again as I mention Sony could probably care less if they are making stand alone cameras in the future. You're talking about a market of about 6M units compared to say 1.4B smartphones, 92M cars, etc.
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Let me think of the counter arguments for anti-Canon crowd.
- those must be EF-M or RF-S consumer craps
- midrange domination is on Sony Nikon
- Consumers are misinformed. We need to re-educate them the Sony Superiority.
- Canon flood the market share with R100
- Canon is lying
- Professional videographers and YouTubers have majority switched to Sony Nikon.
Canon is Dooooommmed™
- those must be EF-M or RF-S consumer craps
- midrange domination is on Sony Nikon
- Consumers are misinformed. We need to re-educate them the Sony Superiority.
- Canon flood the market share with R100
- Canon is lying
- Professional videographers and YouTubers have majority switched to Sony Nikon.
Canon is Dooooommmed™
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True, but Canon also makes sensors for industrial purposes as well as lithography machines and although they can't compete directly with ASML, they have some novel technology.
Of sony also has their phone sensors which would represent a massive volume and revenue difference to full frame sensors. There would be technology from both full frame development and phone sensors complementing the joint R&D.
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Photo sensors use different technology and the BSI/stacking techniques are different. There are more stacking happening for 3D memory chips etc but the photodiode wafers don't need the smallest line width lithography to my knowledge.
The R5's FSI sensor matches the Sony BSI sensor for dynamic range etc showing that they didn't need to use the more expensive BSI process to still make a great sensor.
To improve read out times then stacking is needed and hence BSI in any case.
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I am not sure that Nvida is a good example. They (like Apple) use TSMC and their latest 2-3nm tech for the densest transistor processors. Apple/Nvidia own the design but not the fab which I agree are multi-billion investments and are being built in the US/Europe/Japan etc based on national security requirements.
Nvida's enviable market cap is based on their proprietary solution being far better than Intel etc and their 3rd party fab's ability to meet the demand. TMSC has reported thinking of charging Nvida a higher price to share in their success. One problem is that genAI Large Language Models cost a huge amount (chips/energy etc) but are slow to recoup that investment. Privacy issues are moving genAI to the edge processes eg R1/R5 and neural processors so the genAI bubble could bust soon.
There are reports of Apple buying up almost all TSMC's capacity to keep an advantage and supply for their devices. This would be costing them big time.
At the end of the day, the fabs are enjoying massive day in the sun at the moment but very volatile as new fabs are ramping up with huge capacity in the next couple of years and the Nvida could suffer if the LLM requirements bust.
It wasn't long ago that the fabs were suffering badly when the pandemic hit and then had massive supply issues when the cheap/large-line-width weren't produced and didn't the car manufacturers get hurt then!
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Not necessarily the best but the most cost effective for the market. There are always tradeoffs.
Canon doesn't need the "best camera" to compete with the A1. The A1 has a lot of asterisks in the specs and mostly hasn't appealed to the 1Dx users of today. Canon doesn't need to shift a huge number of R1 but wanted the best rugged body and AF for their Canon user base.
For me the R3 was an interim solution as the R1's technology wasn't ready yet. 4 years is their standard 1 series product lifecycle. No change there.
Canon probably could have had a high MP/fast sensor but chose not to. Cost and not required by the market segment for instance. Canon's flagship by definition is the 1 series. 5 series is the high mp whereas Sony calls their high mp body the flagship and the A9iii the sports model. "Flagship" is a weird term.
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Sensor image performance has had a pause for a long time now. The biggest differentiator has been the readout speed. Sony's global shutter is great and useful for their niche but has limitations which should be clearly understood now. Canon avoided the global shutter as they couldn't beat those limitations (and neither could Sony.
Your assumption that Sony could beat the global shutter limitations sooner than Canon is based on what??
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Canon is Doomed™
Sony slipping to 32% I don't think people realize how significant that is - people *assumed* that Sony would eat Canon's and Nikon for lunch because they had such a head start on mirrorless AF, etc. - instead Canon basically leaped over Sony in a short matter of years in terms of mirrorless performance.
Also I noticed that some are jumping over Canon dropping in marketshare - that's not entirely true because they have a near 100% marketshare still in DSLR's and there are still DSLR's shipping.
So their overall markethshare is probably over 50%.
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