Canon thinks the camera market will drop by another 50% over the next two years

[djack41]

Even worse for Canon. As the camera market drops, aggressive competition is taking away Canon's share of the shrinking market. Canon's refusal to invest in innovation and R&D may be a sound strategy for dealing with red ink but Canon can not expect to be #1 in market share much longer.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Even worse for Canon. As the camera market drops, aggressive competition is taking away Canon's share of the shrinking market.

The data show that Canon is not losing market share. So when you spout crap like this, you merely make yourself look foolish.

 

[knight427]

Alone, unguided? Unlikely.

But if you add millions of monkeys clicking "Like" buttons under those pictures, you can train the drones to intentionally produce photos that the monkeys will like.

I for one welcome our drone overlords along with their monkey minions.

 

[tiggy@mac.com]

Continue reading...

I think few disagree that the camera market is still shrinking (albeit at a slower rate), and that the greatest contraction has and is happening on the low-end side, largely due to displacement by camera phones.

The news in this interview is merely that Canon believes the shrinking will continue, at perhaps even a quickened pace before it bottoms.

The logical response to this assessment would be to concentrate resources on maximizing competitive advantages in the *high end* camera and lens ranges, not prioritize the market that is shrinking fastest. I think we can safely assume that if the next R release is a low-end camera, this is not a direct response to a grand strategy related to the main point of this interview.

When Canon is able to, it will likely be putting emphasis on the higher end models, and its capacity to do so may be a bit limited at the moment - one possible explanation for some of the limitations of its first R release. Once it figures out a few things on that side of things, I expect Canon to be concentrating on the R equivalents of the 6, 5 and 1 series, which suits me fine.

 

[deletemyaccount]

What concerns me is the EF development basically grinding from a slowed rate to virtual domancy. Like many others here, I have plenty of money invested in EF lenses. I'm not about to start buying RF glass anytime soon and despite the claim of adapters working well on mirrorless with EF lenses, I find it less than appealing. I'm still shooting with a 5D3 and an aged 1DIV. I'm looking for a new body, but with many of the new announcements, it doesn't look like I'll be buying simply becauses development in DSLR FF bodies is no longer interesting or a priority to Canon.

 

[BeenThere]

What concerns me is the EF development basically grinding from a slowed rate to virtual domancy. Like many others here, I have plenty of money invested in EF lenses. I'm not about to start buying RF glass anytime soon and despite the claim of adapters working well on mirrorless with EF lenses, I find it less than appealing. I'm still shooting with a 5D3 and an aged 1DIV. I'm looking for a new body, but with many of the new announcements, it doesn't look like I'll be buying simply becauses development in DSLR FF bodies is no longer interesting or a priority to Canon.

One has to adapt and move forward as trends and technologies change. ... or be left totally disappointed and frustrated. Wishing it were otherwise will not bring any changes.

 

[Hector1970]

Canon is doomed - writes Canon
I guess they know more than we do about the market.
I'd say the phone is killing the cheaper end of the market. They are very good and you tend to have built in memory on your phone. You can process them on your phone. It's very convenient.
The market won't be as big as in the past but I think there will still be a hunger for DSLR's and MILC's going forward. Photography is quite addictive. Even those exclusively using phones will want to move onto better quality.
If micro 4/3 is limited then phones will always be limited compared to a DSLR/MILC.
The world's population is growing so over time there will be more people who have photography as a hobby.
Canon / Nikon / Sony all have an issue in how to make a camera better as they are so good already but there is a sizeable demand for those improvements.
I expect they will all migrate towards the higher end of the market and reduce the number of entry level cameras.
Canon will still be taking my money for at least another few years as photography is endless. I've alot left to photograph so my gear will all need replacing at some point. Canon Photography might get dimmed a little but its not doomed.

 

[Kit.]

I think few disagree that the camera market is still shrinking (albeit at a slower rate), and that the greatest contraction has and is happening on the low-end side, largely due to displacement by camera phones.

The news in this interview is merely that Canon believes the shrinking will continue, at perhaps even a quickened pace before it bottoms.

The logical response to this assessment would be to concentrate resources on maximizing competitive advantages in the *high end* camera and lens ranges, not prioritize the market that is shrinking fastest. I think we can safely assume that if the next R release is a low-end camera, this is not a direct response to a grand strategy related to the main point of this interview.

Just the opposite, actually. Canon needs to convince people that used to buy a dedicated camera to continue to buy a dedicated camera. Which means selling 1" to 1/2.3" camera users, selling APS-C to 1" camera users and selling FF to APS-C camera users.

 

[knight427]

The logical response to this assessment would be to concentrate resources on maximizing competitive advantages in the *high end* camera and lens ranges, not prioritize the market that is shrinking fastest. I think we can safely assume that if the next R release is a low-end camera, this is not a direct response to a grand strategy related to the main point of this interview.

I agree with your overall point, I disagree with your assessment of where "high end" begins. I believe that from Canon's perspective, high end begins at Full Frame. The lower spec'd RP then would make sense within this strategy as this becomes the low end of the high end, where the most volume and dollars will be after the collapse of the Rebel lineup. There are a lot of assumptions going on here, but my point is that offering a lower spec R body is not in conflict the "grand strategy" as you call it. In fact, it sets the line clearly where Canon thinks their volume will be made two years from now.

 

[crazyrunner33]

I tried briefly to look at one of their quarterly reports several weeks ago. My impression was that cameras weren't something they needed to talk much about to inform shareholders what was going on.

I tried looking for the same info, at least they're not in a position like Fluke is(the electrician meter company). Fluke was taken over by a private equity firms that has more debt than it can handle, now they're hiring more sales and creatives and just trying to sell any junk that sticks. That's the first thing that came to my mind when I saw that Olympus camera.

 

[nchoh]

I think few disagree that the camera market is still shrinking (albeit at a slower rate), and that the greatest contraction has and is happening on the low-end side, largely due to displacement by camera phones.

The news in this interview is merely that Canon believes the shrinking will continue, at perhaps even a quickened pace before it bottoms.

The logical response to this assessment would be to concentrate resources on maximizing competitive advantages in the *high end* camera and lens ranges, not prioritize the market that is shrinking fastest. I think we can safely assume that if the next R release is a low-end camera, this is not a direct response to a grand strategy related to the main point of this interview.

When Canon is able to, it will likely be putting emphasis on the higher end models, and its capacity to do so may be a bit limited at the moment - one possible explanation for some of the limitations of its first R release. Once it figures out a few things on that side of things, I expect Canon to be concentrating on the R equivalents of the 6, 5 and 1 series, which suits me fine.

The camera market is shrinking... but camera sales are also slowing due to another reason.

Cameras are becoming good enough. Remember the days when cameras had 8MP and the IQ sucked? When the next better model came out, it was visibly better. We are now in a phase where even the low end cameras give good IQ. The reasons for upgrading your camera every other year is getting less. If the largest you post to is Facebook, then almost every camera sold today will suffice. Sports and BIF are some of the few scenarios where the enthusiast or pro are still looking for better features (AF) in the camera. The mass majority of users will not be able to justify a camera upgrade.

 

[jayphotoworks]

I used to have a number of in between systems like an RX100, a travel superzoom and even a GX body w/ kit lens for travel. These days, I don't have any other system other than my working FF bodies. When I go on a trip or vacation, I'll commonly just bring my smartphone, a gopro or two and perhaps some add-on lenses and a compact smartphone gimbal. Currently, I have both an XS Max and a Mate 20 Pro (not available in the US due to political reasons), but the Mate 20 Pro can shoot FLs from 16mm to 80mm. While I still prefer manual controls, use apps like LR, Filmic Pro and connect external accessories like lights and mics, etc. I have to admit that the average consumer can simply leave everything on auto, use the native camera app and in the case of the Mate 20 Pro, use the AI mode that can recognize 1500 unique scenes in 25 categories which best tunes the output accordingly. Both of these devices also have an IP68 rating meaning I can take it from the resort hotel to the swim up bar without guessing how "weather resistant" my ILC might be. Zoom is one of the few remaining advantages available to ILC systems and that is quickly being eroded with upcoming Samsung and Apple flagships moving to 4-5 camera modules.

 

[Kit.]

The reasons for upgrading your camera every other year is getting less. If the largest you post to is Facebook, then almost every camera sold today will suffice. Sports and BIF are some of the few scenarios where the enthusiast or pro are still looking for better features (AF) in the camera.

And if you need to take pictures of running toddlers, the "upgraded" cameras can fail miserably where the previous generation worked well.

 

[deletemyaccount]

One has to adapt and move forward as trends and technologies change. ... or be left totally disappointed and frustrated. Wishing it were otherwise will not bring any changes.

Or we could wait and see and bear with Canon's typical long product cycle. Not everyone wants to go mirrorless and pros with plenty of glass aren't abandoning the EF mount. As to disappointment, more aptly named as impatient.

 

[djack41]

The data show that Canon is not losing market share. So when you spout crap like this, you merely make yourself look foolish.

Sorry but your wrong, Nero. Quit the fanboy routine.

 

[knight427]

Sorry but your wrong, Nero. Quit the fanboy routine.

 

[dolina]

Where is your data to back up what you say from?

Look at my post history for the past 11 years and the data you are looking for will crop up.

What is news to me is the 50% decline within 2 years.

 

[dolina]

What concerns me is the EF development basically grinding from a slowed rate to virtual domancy. Like many others here, I have plenty of money invested in EF lenses. I'm not about to start buying RF glass anytime soon and despite the claim of adapters working well on mirrorless with EF lenses, I find it less than appealing. I'm still shooting with a 5D3 and an aged 1DIV. I'm looking for a new body, but with many of the new announcements, it doesn't look like I'll be buying simply becauses development in DSLR FF bodies is no longer interesting or a priority to Canon.

With the release of these lenses below I expect newer EOS full frame bodies to continue at least until the year 2030,

2018
Canon EF 400mm F2.8L IS III USM
Canon EF 600mm F4L IS III USM
Canon EF 85mm F1.4L IS USM
Canon TS-E 50mm F2.8L Macro
Canon TS-E 90mm F2.8L Macro
Canon TS-E 135mm F4L Macro
2017
Canon EF 70-300 F4-5.6 IS II USM
2016
Canon EF 16-35mm F2.8L III USM
Canon EF 24-105mm F4L IS II USM
2015
Canon EF 35mm F1.4L II USM
Canon EF 50mm f/1.8 STM
Canon EF 11-24mm F4L USM
2014
Canon EF 100-400mm F4.5-5.6L IS II USM
Canon EF 24-105mm F3.5-5.6 IS STM
Canon EF 400mm F4 DO IS II USM
Canon EF 16-35mm F4L IS USM

So I expect at least 2 more 1D bodies, 2 more 5D bodies, 2 more 5Ds bodies, 2 more 6D bodies and maybe 2 more 7D bodies.

I would be surprised if Canon were to continue announcing more EF lenses. It makes more sense to put scarce R&D money into RF system development.

 

[dak723]

What concerns me is the EF development basically grinding from a slowed rate to virtual domancy. Like many others here, I have plenty of money invested in EF lenses. I'm not about to start buying RF glass anytime soon and despite the claim of adapters working well on mirrorless with EF lenses, I find it less than appealing. I'm still shooting with a 5D3 and an aged 1DIV. I'm looking for a new body, but with many of the new announcements, it doesn't look like I'll be buying simply becauses development in DSLR FF bodies is no longer interesting or a priority to Canon.

Everything you say is not a fact - merely your fear. Canon has said in interviews that they will continue to develop DSLRs. The fact that they are pushing out RF lenses and R bodies at an accelerated rate only makes sense as they need to develop the entire system. This does not mean DSLR development won;t continue as it has. If you already have plenty of EF lenses, then the fact that Canon will be concentrating on RF lenses for the next year or more shouldn't be a concern. The EF line is mature and has a wide range of lenses in case you still are in the market for a new lens.

Why people think that having one mirrorless camera with 4 lenses spells the end for DSLRs is really odd, in my opinion.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Sorry but your wrong, Nero. Quit the fanboy routine.

Show us the data that support your claim. Or to put it more bluntly, put up or shut up.