Canon Will Announce Their First Full Frame Mirrorless in 2018 [CR3]

[BillB]

Canon has historically always tried to match Nikon. Some rivalries die hard, I guess.

I agree. I love my EF 24-70 f/2.8L IS, EF 14-24mm f/2.8L and EF 200-500 f/5.6L IS that only got made because Canon had to match what Nik--

Oh. Wait. That never happened.

Though the overall offerings fall into similar buckets between the two companies, I think there are a lot of differences in release timing and tiering of the FF portfolio of bodies. There's a pretty clear stutter step in timing and difference in lengths of product lifecycles if you check Keith's charts at Northlight.

However, all that said, for this 'super big deal' sort of offering, I really do think the two companies may drop news within days of each other. So I am, in no uncertain terms, expecting some premium grade 'marketing brinkmanship' and fanfare as Canon announces, Nikon announces and Sony responds with a counter-announcement -- quite possibly at Photokina.

- A

There may have been a preemptive quality to the A7 III rollout. The recent back and forth between Canon and Nikon leaks/rumors seems likely to continue and intensify.

 

[ahsanford]

There may have been a preemptive quality to the A7 III rollout. The recent back and forth between Canon and Nikon leaks/rumors seems likely to continue and intensify.

The wicked backorder of A7 III we hear about (anecdotally, but there's enough anecdotes all over to plausibly back this up) lead to a few possible conclusions:

[list type=decimal]
[*]Folks are truly ordering this thing in excess of all of Sony's expectations / Sony dramatically underpegged the demand


[*]Sony rushed it to market before the appropriate production throughput and inventory levels could be attained (for the reasons you imply above)


[*]Sony deliberately engineered this backorder situation to bring social media interest to it as some kind of 'sales phenomenon', that A7 had truly become a proper market hit and not just an enthusiast's darling
[/list]

Much more likely 1 or 2 than 3, IMHO.

- A

 

[Kit.]

The wicked backorder of A7 III we hear about (anecdotally, but there's enough anecdotes all over to plausibly back this up) lead to a few possible conclusions:

[list type=decimal]
[*]Folks are truly ordering this thing in excess of all of Sony's expectations / Sony dramatically underpegged the demand


[*]Sony rushed it to market before the appropriate production throughput and inventory levels could be attained (for the reasons you imply above)


[*]Sony deliberately engineered this backorder situation to bring social media interest to it as some kind of 'sales phenomenon', that A7 had truly become a proper market hit and not just an enthusiast's darling
[/list]

4. Sony actually loses money per unit sold, but wants to keep the presence of its brand on the market.

 

[Maiaibing]

4. Sony actually loses money per unit sold, but wants to keep the presence of its brand on the market.

Reference: ?

 

[Kit.]

4. Sony actually loses money per unit sold, but wants to keep the presence of its brand on the market.

Reference: ?

Reference to any of the other 3?

 

[KeithBreazeal]

On a side note, Sony's first commercial product was a rice cooker.

 

[The Fat Fish]

I wonder how the 4K will be crippled in this one.

No 4K at all?
Poor codec?
Horrific crop?
No DPAF?

All are possible, at least one or two are likely. The wait for this camera is the only thing keeping me from jumping ship. This camera has to be competitive.

 

[Durf]

On a side note, Sony's first commercial product was a rice cooker.

...and they used a Canon camera for the product photography to market the rice cooker....

 

[nchoh]

On a side note, Sony's first commercial product was a rice cooker.

...and they used a Canon camera for the product photography to market the rice cooker....

Actually... they got out of the rice cooker business.

 

[ahsanford]

4. Sony actually loses money per unit sold, but wants to keep the presence of its brand on the market.

Reference: ?

...that's kind of how they sold PS3 and PS4, correct? Sell it at cost (or in the PS's case, a loss initially I believe) to get folks to adopt the system and bring revenue in through other channels, correct?

It's conjecture that any of the above (1-3 that I offered) are happening, of course. Just a guess.

- A

 

[BillB]

There may have been a preemptive quality to the A7 III rollout. The recent back and forth between Canon and Nikon leaks/rumors seems likely to continue and intensify.

The wicked backorder of A7 III we hear about (anecdotally, but there's enough anecdotes all over to plausibly back this up) lead to a few possible conclusions:

[list type=decimal]
[*]Folks are truly ordering this thing in excess of all of Sony's expectations / Sony dramatically underpegged the demand


[*]Sony rushed it to market before the appropriate production throughput and inventory levels could be attained (for the reasons you imply above)


[*]Sony deliberately engineered this backorder situation to bring social media interest to it as some kind of 'sales phenomenon', that A7 had truly become a proper market hit and not just an enthusiast's darling
[/list]

Much more likely 1 or 2 than 3, IMHO.

- A

Maybe there was a relatively late decision to drop the price, which kicked demand higher than anticipated.

Or maybe it started out as 2, and some paid and volunteer spinmasters are working to turn it into 3.

 

[transpo1]

Canon has historically always tried to match Nikon. Some rivalries die hard, I guess.

I agree. I love my EF 24-70 f/2.8L IS, EF 14-24mm f/2.8L and EF 200-500 f/5.6L IS that only got made because Canon had to match what Nik--

Oh. Wait. That never happened.

Though the overall offerings fall into similar buckets between the two companies, I think there are a lot of differences in release timing and tiering of the FF portfolio of bodies. There's a pretty clear stutter step in timing and difference in lengths of product lifecycles if you check Keith's charts at Northlight.

However, all that said, for this 'super big deal' sort of offering, I really do think the two companies may drop news within days of each other. So I am, in no uncertain terms, expecting some premium grade 'marketing brinkmanship' and fanfare as Canon announces, Nikon announces and Sony responds with a counter-announcement -- quite possibly at Photokina.

- A

Yep, all this competition will be good for us- the consumer.

 

[transpo1]

I wonder how the 4K will be crippled in this one.

No 4K at all?
Poor codec?
Horrific crop?
No DPAF?

All are possible, at least one or two are likely. The wait for this camera is the only thing keeping me from jumping ship. This camera has to be competitive.

Most likely a 5DIV-like crop- but that would be a mistake. FF video was what put their stills cameras on the map for video and lead to the increased large sensor video camera market.

 

[Kit.]

...that's kind of how they sold PS3 and PS4, correct? Sell it at cost (or in the PS's case, a loss initially I believe) to get folks to adopt the system and bring revenue in through other channels, correct?

If I remember correctly, PS3 were sold $250-$300 below the BoM costs, and the profits were made on game subscriptions.

 

[ahsanford]

...that's kind of how they sold PS3 and PS4, correct? Sell it at cost (or in the PS's case, a loss initially I believe) to get folks to adopt the system and bring revenue in through other channels, correct?

If I remember correctly, PS3 were sold $250-$300 below the BoM costs, and the profits were made on game subscriptions.

Souds right, but it wasn't subscriptions back in the PS3 days -- they were simply looking to move games at $60 per. Effectively, they were giving the hammer away in an effort to sell a lot of nails.

- A

 

[neuroanatomist]

...that's kind of how they sold PS3 and PS4, correct? Sell it at cost (or in the PS's case, a loss initially I believe) to get folks to adopt the system and bring revenue in through other channels, correct?

If I remember correctly, PS3 were sold $250-$300 below the BoM costs, and the profits were made on game subscriptions.

Souds right, but it wasn't subscriptions back in the PS3 days -- they were simply looking to move games at $60 per. Effectively, they were giving the hammer away in an effort to sell a lot of nails.

Sure, but the ink jet printer model doesn’t really apply to cameras.

 

[Kit.]

Sure, but the ink jet printer model doesn’t really apply to cameras.

One can try to sell lenses.

If it's not just a part of the brand image campaign.

 

[BillB]

Sure, but the ink jet printer model doesn’t really apply to cameras.

One can try to sell lenses.

If it's not just a part of the brand image campaign.

Sure, right now they are the only game in town. They will have more trouble getting attention when the Canon and Nikon models hit the streets.

Desperation might be another possibility. With head on competition looming, move product however you have to.

 

[scyrene]

I am dismayed that Canon would release a FF mirrorless body. Zero interest for me

Canon already makes several APS-C mirrorless bodies. What does their releasing a FF one have to do with you, if you're not interested? What is the point of this post?

 

[scyrene]

I wonder how the 4K will be crippled in this one.

No 4K at all?
Poor codec?
Horrific crop?
No DPAF?

All are possible, at least one or two are likely. The wait for this camera is the only thing keeping me from jumping ship. This camera has to be competitive.

Yaaaawn. "Jump ship" or don't. More likely, you'll just keep injecting your negativity into these forums.