I'd argue Sony knows the TECHNOLOGY, better than they know the market. If they can build it, they probably will. Betamax and minidisc being two famous examples of them pushing a technology arguably superior, and which worked, but for various reasons didn't widely crack in to the market. If Canon's rolling shutter speeds are as rumored, the GS phenomenon may be short lived. Or it may just become another parallel equivalent as BSI/FSI non-stacked sensors are now.
We're all just here reading tea leaves. But the lack of evidence that the 50mp A1 wasn't a mistake does not make it evidence that at 30mp R1 IS a mistake. That type of reasoning is a logical fallacy, based on confirmation bias. Really, only time will tell. They have the market research, and we do not. But the R1 will likely sell out as it always does. It looks like Sony is positioning its line up with a medium speed high MP A1, and a faster mid-res A9 line. Will canon do an R1 in the 30s, and R3mkII that slower but higher res? An R1S? Will the R5mkII be the high MP medium speed body?
Whatever the answers, we know a few truths.
- Some folks will be hurt and feel 'forced' to switch systems. Let down by an evil corporation that can't see the pure simple truth of their needs
- the number of switchers will not affect the top or bottom line of either company in a meaningful way
- the cameras that are declared dead on arrival by the forums due to bad spec sheets will be used by thousands and produce great results
- The performance difference between the top Sony and Canon models will continue to be effectively very small