Thanks.
I remember when autofocus was a gimmick. And the iPod was a fad. I think the jury is out on VR. I wonder if Oculus users know there’s no way to consume VR.
VR has the same issue as 3D. While the tech itself is cool there simply isn't an easy way to consume it. Sure at some point they'll be able to get a solid device cheap enough that people can buy it. But realistically you can't consume a lot of content through a device that you have to put over your eyes.
Still, we all know how late Canon was to mirrorless. And we all know who leads the market now. So if they’re late to hybrid shooting, I don’t expect it to have a significant effect on their market share. Time will tell.
Agreed that time will tell, not so much about market share. We've discussed this before but even though Canon is the market leader in number of products sold Canon is at $544B while Sony is at $643B. With Canon at 46% total market share vs Sony's 26% that puts Canon at around 3.6M cameras sold vs Sony's 2M. So this means Canon is selling cameras at an average of about $1,000 while Sony is selling cameras at an average of double that at more than $2,000.
Now clearly the Sony cameras aren't double the cost of Canon's its just that most of the additional 1.5M units more cameras that Canon sells are lower end cameras. Lower end cameras have lower profit margin. These cameras are slowly being phased away. Canon has been effectively buying market share by lowering prices to remain the market leader. You can see that in the current pricing. The R8 was released about a year ago and is currently on sale at $1,300. The closes Sony equivalent would be the much older A7C which was released 4 years ago and is currently $1,600. So a camera that is almost 3 years older is selling for $300 more and the R8 is clearly a better camera. Same thing for the R6mii. It was just on sale for $2000 last week and is now on sale for $2,300 this week. This camera was released about 1 and half years ago. It's closes Sony competitor is the Sony A7IV which was released a year before the R6mii and again is sell at $2,500 or $300-$500 more than the Canon.
Canon's market share is an illusion. They make less money than Sony but have a higher market share from selling an extra 1.5M cheap cameras. We're talking about people walking into Best Buy or Walmart and buying an EOS R100 WITH a kit lens for $400. These are people buying dad a gift or an impulse buy. They'll take a couple pictures with the kit lens, realize most of their photos aren't better than their iphone and the camera will collect dust on a shelf somewhere. Heck Canon is still selling Rebel T7's that aren't 4k for $479. Does anyone truly think these budget cameras are going to be selling 5 years from now?
And this data shows pretty clear when you look at the market share for rental cameras. People don't rent low end cheap cameras. So the rental market share gives you a good look at where the market is headed as people only rent cameras they need to use.
https://www.statista.com/statistics... United States, Canon,a share of 32.7 percent.
| Canon | Sony |
2020 | 38.46% | 22.8% |
2021 | 37.49% | 28.7% |
2022 | 35.93% | 31.17% |
2023 | 33.39% | 32.67% |
So bascially over the last 4 years Canon went from being 50% ahead to bascially tied with Sony.
If the R3 line is going to continue, then it needs to be overhauled into something different. If they want the R1 to be the "legacy" low megapixel/fast readout speed camera then the R3 needs to be the jack of all trades A1/Z9 competitor. Because when the $400 DSLR Rebel sales drop they're going to have to compete head to head with Canon/Nikon at the upper end of the market.
Then the R1 would go head to head with the Sony A9 and the R3 would go head to head with the Sony A1. Beacause right now it appears as though the R3 was the true flahship along along and they simply called the R3mii the R1 for the sake of saying they have a flagship after all these years without one.