I personally think there are likely more people who already have moved from DSLRs to mirrorless than those who are still on DSLRs but are also in the market to buy a new camera at this point. Obviously there are people who have DSLRs but have dropped out of the camera market for whatever reason, but they are irrelevant since they aren't in the market. This is my guess though, and I certainly don't insist on it.
I agree that the number of switchers in general is probably low (at least lower than some folks would like to believe), but I think a switch to mirrorless and a change in lens mount would prompt more switchers (in whatever direction) than the usual "I'll just get the new version of my current camera".
I know of at least one fairly high end (for his geographical market) portraitist who is still shooting with 5D Mark IV cameras and considering a switch to RF cameras as his bodies are starting to show their age a bit in terms of wear and tear. He replaced his 5D Mark II with his first 5D Mark IV around 2018. His second 5D IV was bought used around 2020.
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